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Documenting Production Conditions and Quantifying the Yield Gap of Winter Wheat and Barley in Alborz Province by Using the APSIM Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/jci.2025.387384.2910

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to characterize the production conditions and quantify the yield gap of spring wheat and barley in Alborz province using crop and climate models.
Method: The potential regional yield over the past decade was estimated using the APSIM-7.1 sub-models (APSIM-Wheat and APSIM-Barley). These models were first parameterized for dominant local cultivars, and their performance evaluated using climatic data, regional management practices, and genetic coefficients. Data collection involved a four-year study in two phases: farm and field. Parameterization was based on a two-year experiment (2014–2015 at the Atomic Energy Organization farm and 2016–2017 at the University of Tehran), employing a randomized complete block design with 12 treatments (six wheat and six barley cultivars) and three replications. Model evaluation used data from 60 farms in Nazarabad during 2018–2019 and 2019–2020.
Results: Model evaluation indices (nRMSE, CRM, D-index, R²) confirmed the effectiveness of APSIM in simulating wheat and barley yields. Simulations indicated potential yields of approximately 10,800 kg/ha for wheat and 10,350 kg/ha for barley over the past 10 years. The yield gaps at different levels were: Level 1 (difference between potential and leading farmers) –18.5% for wheat and 29.5% for barley; Level 2 (available vs. leading farmers) –14.9% and 3.1%; Level 3 (available vs. actual yields) –26.5% and 24.0%; and Level 4 (actual vs. regional average yields) –18.3% and 23.7%. Key management factors influencing yield gaps included irrigation schedule, water use, planting date, cultivar choice, nitrogen application, and plant density.
Conclusions: Adopting optimal management practices—such as tailored irrigation, fertilizer application, planting timing, and cultivar selection—can help farmers reduce yield gaps and conserve resources. The APSIM model proves valuable for forecasting, scenario analysis, and decision-making aimed at improving productivity in Alborz province.

Keywords

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Journal of Crops Improvement
Volume 27, Issue 2
June 2025
Pages 203-222
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