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Forecasting the Effect of Some Future Climatic Factors During of the Reproductive Period and Grain Yield of Some Rain Fed Wheat Cultivars in Khorramabad City

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Department of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

3 Department of Production Engineering and Plant Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Khuzestan, Iran.

10.22059/jci.2025.382374.2896

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to investigate future changes in climatic factors during 2021–2024, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080 under scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, and their effects on the reproductive period and grain yield of rain-fed wheat cultivars in Khorramabad.
Method: Climate projections were generated using the LARS-WG-V7 software and the HadCM3 model, based on 35 years of historical climate data (1987–2023). To predict changes in the reproductive period and grain yield, the APSIM model was employed, incorporating soil, crop, and management data. The output from LARS-WG-V7 served as input for APSIM. An experiment with a randomized complete block design and three replicates was conducted during 2021–2022 at the Lorestan Province Meteorological Department’s research farm in Khorramabad, including three wheat cultivars: Qaboos, Kohdasht, and Aftab. Genetic coefficients were calibrated based on experimental data, and the model was localized accordingly. Model validation was performed using data from ten farms in Khorramabad.
Results: Climate scenario analysis revealed that, with increasing CO₂ concentrations (18–86%), minimum temperatures could rise by 10–43%, maximum temperatures by 6–21%, and precipitation by 2–20%. These climatic changes led to a reduction in the reproductive period: 0–1.3% in Qaboos, –1.7% to +1.7% in Aftab, and –1.1% to +2.7% in Kohdasht, depending on the scenario and period. Grain yield decreased on average by 15.6% to 42.2%. Under optimistic and moderate scenarios, Qaboos maintained higher yields than Aftab and Kohdasht; however, in pessimistic scenarios, Kohdasht showed the least decline, and Qaboos consistently outperformed others across climatic periods.
Conclusions: Since farmers cannot control climatic conditions, adopting suitable adaptation strategies—such as selecting optimal cultivars, adjusting planting dates, irrigation methods, and plant density—is vital for sustainable production. The APSIM model is a valuable tool for future forecasting, scenario development, and informed decision-making to enhance regional wheat production under changing climate conditions.

Keywords

References
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Journal of Crops Improvement
Volume 27, Issue 2
June 2025
Pages 189-202
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