Hosna Fayazi; Ebrahim Zeinali; Afshin Soltani; Benyamin Torabi
Abstract
Global climate change is among the most important agricultural and food security challenges. This study tries to investigate the effect of climate change on potential yield and water productivity of forage maize (Zea mays L.) in Iran. Two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to predict the future ...
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Global climate change is among the most important agricultural and food security challenges. This study tries to investigate the effect of climate change on potential yield and water productivity of forage maize (Zea mays L.) in Iran. Two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to predict the future climate (2050s) and climate data of 2001-2015 have been used as the base period. Potential yield is estimated using SSM-iCrop2 model according to the GYGA protocol and the climate changes for both scenarios are applied in the model. The results show that the climate change will not have a considerable effect on forage maize yield compared to the current conditions (85.6 ton ha-1) and will only lead to an increase of 0.9% and 1.6% in on both scenarios, respectively. This may be attributed to maize being a C4 plant and thus non-effectiveness of CO2 increase on its growth. Also, the temperature will remain in optimum range for maize in most of the main regions for forage maize cultivation areas in Iran. Water productivity in both scenarios will increase by 0.4% and 1.6%, compared to current conditions (10.4 kg m-3), respectively, which may be due to increased CO2 concentration and more closure of stomata. Also, improved water productivity in forage maize may be attributed to increase yield potential due to the fact that no considerable changes are observed in terms of the required water, evapotranspiration and irrigation times.
raheleh arabameri; afshin soltani; Ebrahim Zeinali; benyanen torabi
Abstract
Yield gap analysis is a quantitative estimate of possible increase of the capacity to provide food for a specified area. It is an important component for designing strategies to supply food on a scale of regional, national, and global level. In this regard a study has been conducted to determine the ...
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Yield gap analysis is a quantitative estimate of possible increase of the capacity to provide food for a specified area. It is an important component for designing strategies to supply food on a scale of regional, national, and global level. In this regard a study has been conducted to determine the extent and function of chickpea and lentil crop vacancy distribution at Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources during 2016-2018. Using SSM-iCrop2 model, the study simulates potential yield in chickpea and lentil producing regions in Iran. For this purpose, it employs the protocol of Atlas Gap Project, called GYGA protocol, to identify climatic zones and identify important meteorological stations, located in chickpea and lentil production areas in the country. After identifying the important stations, the performance potential for the station range is simulated and then the regional results are generalized to the whole country, based on the GYGA protocol. For dryland chickpeas in the country, the values of actual and potential yield as well as yield gap have been 0.43, 1.04, and 0.61 tons per hectare, respectively. In case of rainfed lentils in the country, the values of actual yield and potential along with yield gap have been 0.43, 1.10, and 0.67 tons per hectare, respectively. The present study can be used for better management in low-yield and high-yield areas of the country for these two products.